The Long Ball Deception
Brett Starkopf
Features Editor
Every baseball player knows that chicks dig the long ball. And all baseball fans can agree there is nothing better, offensively, than a walk-off blast. But is the home run an integral part to winning a championship? Of course it’s fun for the fans to see and even more for the team when it happens in a clutch situation, but is scoring most of the runs because of a big fly going to help a team get to the championship as opposed to hinder their chances of winning? Of course not, but let’s see how much of a role it played in previous seasons.
Thanks to mlb.com, baseball-reference.com and my trusty calculator, I was able to determine the percentage of runs scored as a result of home runs for the winners of the past 11 World Series and compare them to the stomping mats of the league. (Information for the research wasn’t available prior to the ’99 season, hence the uneven number.)
Here is what I found:
Since the 1998 home run race between Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa, homers have risen in popularity and in numbers (due in part to the use of HGH and anabolic steroids). In 1999 people started paying more attention to home runs and for the years that followed, homers seem to be crucial to any offense. However, in 7 of the past 11 years, the team whose player led the league in home runs missed the playoffs. Of the four that made the playoffs, only one team reached the World Series (2008 Phillies, Ryan Howard hit 48) and eventually won.
During that time, only twice did the league leader play for the team that collectively hit the most bombs (Alex Rodriguez hit 57 of the Rangers 230 home runs in 2002 and 47 of the 239 in ’04, missing the playoffs both years). A-Rod contributed to 25 percent of the team home runs in ’02 and 20 percent in ’03, a significant percentage of productivity coming from a single person. In those two seasons, A-Rod hit 22 percent of the team home runs.
Texas finished dead last in their division both of those years. The also finished top 10 in most offensive categories in 2002, yet, finished 18-games under .500. Aside from posting an ERA that was 27th out of 30 in the league, most of their runs scored came from home runs. In fact, 42 percent came from the big fly.
The 2009 New York Yankees were the only team to win the World Series and lead Major League Baseball in home runs. They also lead the MLB in most hitting categories. However, they seemed to have an advantage. The Bronx Bombers’ new stadium played host to the most long balls in the league. There were 237 total homers hit in 81 games played there, a league leading 136 came from the home team, an average of 2.93 big flies a game. To put it in comparison, Wrigley Field only let up 160 home runs and U.S. Cellular let up 192.
The defense-wins-championships cliché has been true for the past 11 years. Specifically, it’s pitching that wins championships. Eight of the past eleven World Series champions have been in the top 10 in ERA, and half of them were in the top five. The 2002 Anaheim Angels finished fifth in ERA and 23rd in home runs hit. That year, the Angels scored only 31 percent of their runs off home runs, the smallest percentage in the MLB. They share that mark with the 2007 Boston Red Sox, who finished the year 18th in home runs hit and second in ERA.
The only championship team that didn’t finish top 10 in home runs and ERA is the 2006 St. Louis Cardinals. The Cards finished 16th in ERA and 12th in home runs hit. Actually, they are the only team in the past 11 years to win the World Series having won less than 85 games all season.
By my calculations, in order to be a World Series champion, you need a great balance of offense and defense, pretty obvious, I know. What isn’t obvious is the way teams go about doing it. Some rely on home runs like the ’01 Arizona Diamondbacks (43 percent of runs came from home runs), the ’05 Chicago White Sox (42 percent) and the ’08 Phillies (43 percent). Other teams rely on pitching like the aforementioned ’02 Angels and ’07 Red Sox. And the rest, well, I guess they got lucky. Just ask the ’03 Marlins.
Features Editor
Every baseball player knows that chicks dig the long ball. And all baseball fans can agree there is nothing better, offensively, than a walk-off blast. But is the home run an integral part to winning a championship? Of course it’s fun for the fans to see and even more for the team when it happens in a clutch situation, but is scoring most of the runs because of a big fly going to help a team get to the championship as opposed to hinder their chances of winning? Of course not, but let’s see how much of a role it played in previous seasons.
Thanks to mlb.com, baseball-reference.com and my trusty calculator, I was able to determine the percentage of runs scored as a result of home runs for the winners of the past 11 World Series and compare them to the stomping mats of the league. (Information for the research wasn’t available prior to the ’99 season, hence the uneven number.)
Here is what I found:
Since the 1998 home run race between Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa, homers have risen in popularity and in numbers (due in part to the use of HGH and anabolic steroids). In 1999 people started paying more attention to home runs and for the years that followed, homers seem to be crucial to any offense. However, in 7 of the past 11 years, the team whose player led the league in home runs missed the playoffs. Of the four that made the playoffs, only one team reached the World Series (2008 Phillies, Ryan Howard hit 48) and eventually won.
During that time, only twice did the league leader play for the team that collectively hit the most bombs (Alex Rodriguez hit 57 of the Rangers 230 home runs in 2002 and 47 of the 239 in ’04, missing the playoffs both years). A-Rod contributed to 25 percent of the team home runs in ’02 and 20 percent in ’03, a significant percentage of productivity coming from a single person. In those two seasons, A-Rod hit 22 percent of the team home runs.
Texas finished dead last in their division both of those years. The also finished top 10 in most offensive categories in 2002, yet, finished 18-games under .500. Aside from posting an ERA that was 27th out of 30 in the league, most of their runs scored came from home runs. In fact, 42 percent came from the big fly.
The 2009 New York Yankees were the only team to win the World Series and lead Major League Baseball in home runs. They also lead the MLB in most hitting categories. However, they seemed to have an advantage. The Bronx Bombers’ new stadium played host to the most long balls in the league. There were 237 total homers hit in 81 games played there, a league leading 136 came from the home team, an average of 2.93 big flies a game. To put it in comparison, Wrigley Field only let up 160 home runs and U.S. Cellular let up 192.
The defense-wins-championships cliché has been true for the past 11 years. Specifically, it’s pitching that wins championships. Eight of the past eleven World Series champions have been in the top 10 in ERA, and half of them were in the top five. The 2002 Anaheim Angels finished fifth in ERA and 23rd in home runs hit. That year, the Angels scored only 31 percent of their runs off home runs, the smallest percentage in the MLB. They share that mark with the 2007 Boston Red Sox, who finished the year 18th in home runs hit and second in ERA.
The only championship team that didn’t finish top 10 in home runs and ERA is the 2006 St. Louis Cardinals. The Cards finished 16th in ERA and 12th in home runs hit. Actually, they are the only team in the past 11 years to win the World Series having won less than 85 games all season.
By my calculations, in order to be a World Series champion, you need a great balance of offense and defense, pretty obvious, I know. What isn’t obvious is the way teams go about doing it. Some rely on home runs like the ’01 Arizona Diamondbacks (43 percent of runs came from home runs), the ’05 Chicago White Sox (42 percent) and the ’08 Phillies (43 percent). Other teams rely on pitching like the aforementioned ’02 Angels and ’07 Red Sox. And the rest, well, I guess they got lucky. Just ask the ’03 Marlins.
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